Derrell Peel: Five cattle market factors to watch in 2011 | TSLN.com

Derrell Peel: Five cattle market factors to watch in 2011

Derrell Peel, long-time Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, recently named five factors he expects to have the biggest impact on market prices in 2011. The five, followed by excerpts from his analysis:

Beef demand: Expected beef production decreases next year will put upward pressure on wholesale and retail prices. The ability to pass on these higher prices will depend on continued recovery in beef demand.

Herd expansion – or not? The question of herd rebuilding will determine just how tight cattle supplies are next year, and also the timetable for potential increases in beef production in coming years.

2011 crop conditions: A 2010 corn crop that fell just short of record levels was enough to push corn prices sharply higher. Crop prices and their volatility will continue to have a big impact on livestock industries in general, especially on the cattle feedlot sector.

International trade: Strong beef exports provided critical support for cattle markets in 2010. They’re expected to increase again in 2011, although at a more modest rate.

Forage conditions: The beef industry’s responses to limited cattle numbers and high feed grain prices depend on forage. There are continued strong incentives for increased cow-calf production and for forage-based stocker production. The quantity and quality of forage will have a big impact on both the level of production and the timing of feeder cattle flows during 2011.

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Derrell Peel, long-time Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, recently named five factors he expects to have the biggest impact on market prices in 2011. The five, followed by excerpts from his analysis:

Beef demand: Expected beef production decreases next year will put upward pressure on wholesale and retail prices. The ability to pass on these higher prices will depend on continued recovery in beef demand.

Herd expansion – or not? The question of herd rebuilding will determine just how tight cattle supplies are next year, and also the timetable for potential increases in beef production in coming years.

2011 crop conditions: A 2010 corn crop that fell just short of record levels was enough to push corn prices sharply higher. Crop prices and their volatility will continue to have a big impact on livestock industries in general, especially on the cattle feedlot sector.

International trade: Strong beef exports provided critical support for cattle markets in 2010. They’re expected to increase again in 2011, although at a more modest rate.

Forage conditions: The beef industry’s responses to limited cattle numbers and high feed grain prices depend on forage. There are continued strong incentives for increased cow-calf production and for forage-based stocker production. The quantity and quality of forage will have a big impact on both the level of production and the timing of feeder cattle flows during 2011.

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