DTN Ag Confidence index bullish | TSLN.com

DTN Ag Confidence index bullish

Pat Hill

OMAHA (DTN) – American farmers were gloomy last spring, but they’ve turned more optimistic, according to the latest DTN/Progressive Farmer Agriculture Confidence Index.

The index aims to take the pulse of the agricultural economy. It’s based on a survey of 500 producers picked at random to reflect the demographic makeup of the 2007 USDA Ag Census. The survey is conducted three times a year – before planting, before harvest and at year’s end. The index was launched last April, and this second survey was conducted the first two weeks of September.

The index now stands at 140, up sharply from the initial survey in April, whose index reading was recalibrated to 100 to serve as the baseline for future reference. The Present Situation Index, which reflects current producer sentiment regarding input prices and net income, is a strong 180. The Expectations Index, which measures sentiment 12 months from now, is 118.

“What a difference – very dramatic!” said Robert Hill, an economist and the owner of Caledonia Solutions, the research and consulting firm for agribusinesses that designed the Agriculture Confidence Index for DTN. “It’s been a dramatic year, and this index reflects that.”

This second reading of the index raises a couple of questions, Hill suggested. Does the difference have to do with the mood of producers at the different stages in the crop year? As Hill put it, “Are growers so craggy pre-plant and giddy at harvest time?” Or is something else happening this year regarding input prices and farm income?

The survey consists of five questions. In the first two, participants are asked to rate current input prices and net farm income as good, normal or bad. The other three concern expectations for the next 12 months for input prices, net farm income, and gross household income, the possible answers being better, same or worse.

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The drop in fuel prices is one reason why Robert Revels, a farmer in Geneva County, AL, is more optimistic about his current situation. And Revels said prices he got for calves he sold this summer were favorable. But it’s extremely dry in his area now, so he’s less certain about what conditions will be a year from now.

OMAHA (DTN) – American farmers were gloomy last spring, but they’ve turned more optimistic, according to the latest DTN/Progressive Farmer Agriculture Confidence Index.

The index aims to take the pulse of the agricultural economy. It’s based on a survey of 500 producers picked at random to reflect the demographic makeup of the 2007 USDA Ag Census. The survey is conducted three times a year – before planting, before harvest and at year’s end. The index was launched last April, and this second survey was conducted the first two weeks of September.

The index now stands at 140, up sharply from the initial survey in April, whose index reading was recalibrated to 100 to serve as the baseline for future reference. The Present Situation Index, which reflects current producer sentiment regarding input prices and net income, is a strong 180. The Expectations Index, which measures sentiment 12 months from now, is 118.

“What a difference – very dramatic!” said Robert Hill, an economist and the owner of Caledonia Solutions, the research and consulting firm for agribusinesses that designed the Agriculture Confidence Index for DTN. “It’s been a dramatic year, and this index reflects that.”

This second reading of the index raises a couple of questions, Hill suggested. Does the difference have to do with the mood of producers at the different stages in the crop year? As Hill put it, “Are growers so craggy pre-plant and giddy at harvest time?” Or is something else happening this year regarding input prices and farm income?

The survey consists of five questions. In the first two, participants are asked to rate current input prices and net farm income as good, normal or bad. The other three concern expectations for the next 12 months for input prices, net farm income, and gross household income, the possible answers being better, same or worse.

The drop in fuel prices is one reason why Robert Revels, a farmer in Geneva County, AL, is more optimistic about his current situation. And Revels said prices he got for calves he sold this summer were favorable. But it’s extremely dry in his area now, so he’s less certain about what conditions will be a year from now.

OMAHA (DTN) – American farmers were gloomy last spring, but they’ve turned more optimistic, according to the latest DTN/Progressive Farmer Agriculture Confidence Index.

The index aims to take the pulse of the agricultural economy. It’s based on a survey of 500 producers picked at random to reflect the demographic makeup of the 2007 USDA Ag Census. The survey is conducted three times a year – before planting, before harvest and at year’s end. The index was launched last April, and this second survey was conducted the first two weeks of September.

The index now stands at 140, up sharply from the initial survey in April, whose index reading was recalibrated to 100 to serve as the baseline for future reference. The Present Situation Index, which reflects current producer sentiment regarding input prices and net income, is a strong 180. The Expectations Index, which measures sentiment 12 months from now, is 118.

“What a difference – very dramatic!” said Robert Hill, an economist and the owner of Caledonia Solutions, the research and consulting firm for agribusinesses that designed the Agriculture Confidence Index for DTN. “It’s been a dramatic year, and this index reflects that.”

This second reading of the index raises a couple of questions, Hill suggested. Does the difference have to do with the mood of producers at the different stages in the crop year? As Hill put it, “Are growers so craggy pre-plant and giddy at harvest time?” Or is something else happening this year regarding input prices and farm income?

The survey consists of five questions. In the first two, participants are asked to rate current input prices and net farm income as good, normal or bad. The other three concern expectations for the next 12 months for input prices, net farm income, and gross household income, the possible answers being better, same or worse.

The drop in fuel prices is one reason why Robert Revels, a farmer in Geneva County, AL, is more optimistic about his current situation. And Revels said prices he got for calves he sold this summer were favorable. But it’s extremely dry in his area now, so he’s less certain about what conditions will be a year from now.

OMAHA (DTN) – American farmers were gloomy last spring, but they’ve turned more optimistic, according to the latest DTN/Progressive Farmer Agriculture Confidence Index.

The index aims to take the pulse of the agricultural economy. It’s based on a survey of 500 producers picked at random to reflect the demographic makeup of the 2007 USDA Ag Census. The survey is conducted three times a year – before planting, before harvest and at year’s end. The index was launched last April, and this second survey was conducted the first two weeks of September.

The index now stands at 140, up sharply from the initial survey in April, whose index reading was recalibrated to 100 to serve as the baseline for future reference. The Present Situation Index, which reflects current producer sentiment regarding input prices and net income, is a strong 180. The Expectations Index, which measures sentiment 12 months from now, is 118.

“What a difference – very dramatic!” said Robert Hill, an economist and the owner of Caledonia Solutions, the research and consulting firm for agribusinesses that designed the Agriculture Confidence Index for DTN. “It’s been a dramatic year, and this index reflects that.”

This second reading of the index raises a couple of questions, Hill suggested. Does the difference have to do with the mood of producers at the different stages in the crop year? As Hill put it, “Are growers so craggy pre-plant and giddy at harvest time?” Or is something else happening this year regarding input prices and farm income?

The survey consists of five questions. In the first two, participants are asked to rate current input prices and net farm income as good, normal or bad. The other three concern expectations for the next 12 months for input prices, net farm income, and gross household income, the possible answers being better, same or worse.

The drop in fuel prices is one reason why Robert Revels, a farmer in Geneva County, AL, is more optimistic about his current situation. And Revels said prices he got for calves he sold this summer were favorable. But it’s extremely dry in his area now, so he’s less certain about what conditions will be a year from now.

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