A Few Thoughts by John Nalivka: U.S. beef imports

There are many opinions about the U.S. importing beef. With current discussions concerning tariffs, and particularly the recently announced tariff on products from Brazil, it is time to review this topic of U.S. beef imports.

A quick preview shows that through May (most recently available trade data) the U.S. imported 2.5 billion pounds of beef and up 34% over a year earlier. Brazil’s shipments to the U.S., at 666 million pounds, were up 109% from a year earlier or 27% of total U.S. beef imports. For the same period in 2024, Brazil accounted for 17% of the total.

Australia’s beef exports to the U.S. through May were up 35% from a year ago and accounted for 20% of the total. Australia’s drop in market share is noteworthy. Except for when they have liquidated herds due to drought, Australia has historically been the major source of U.S. beef imports. In 2024, Australia shipped 1.1 billion pounds of beef to the U.S. representing 24% of our total imported beef followed by Canadian shipments accounting for 22% and Brazil with 15% of the total.

I am projecting U.S. beef production for 2025 at just over 26 billion pounds. The record for U.S. beef production was in 2022 when we produced just over 28 billion pounds with herd liquidation that year resulting from drought and low prices. The U.S. cattle inventory was reduced by 6 million head falling to the lowest total numbers since 1952 and a beef cow herd the smallest since 1961. Together, the total number of beef and dairy cows is the smallest since 1941.

So, why do we import beef when the U.S. is the world’s leading producer of quality, safe beef? Cows are the primary source of lean grind. Lean grind is used in the production of ground beef and ground beef is an important part of total beef production and consumer demand. Liquidation resulted in not only a much smaller cow inventory, but also a much younger and more productive cow herd. Consequently, cow slaughter has been sharply reduced during 2024 and 2025 (down 15% in 2024 and another 8% in 2025 – Sterling Marketing) as cattlemen now maintain herds in the face of record-high prices. This sharp decline in cow slaughter will likely extend into 2026. The consequences of this sharply reduced cow slaughter is a sharply reduced supply of lean grinding beef – 90% and 85% lean.

What percentage of total grinding beef produced in the U.S. is lean grinding beef and furthermore, to what extent do cows account for lean in that grinding beef supply? In 2024, total U.S. produced grinding beef accounted for 69% of the total estimated supply, the lowest since 2005. U.S. cow beef accounted for 12.9% of total grind and the lowest in my calculations going back to 1980.

Subsequently, 38.3% of the total supply will be sourced from imported beef and the highest since 2004.

It should come as no surprise why the price of domestic 90% lean cow beef is record high or that imported 90% lean beef is in such demand by processors – supply and demand.