A Few Thoughts by John Nalivka: U.S. beef trade
U.S. trade has become a hot topic since President-elect Trump announced he would put tariffs on imported products from Mexico and Canada. Earlier he indicated he would place tariffs on Chinese products coming into the U.S. to level the playing field between the U.S. and China. This is a topic that immediately leads to analysis or speculation about the impact of tariffs, particularly since many, if not most of us are “free trade” thinkers and do not like tariffs. Beyond that, we are involved with an industry that realizes a substantial economic benefit from trade of which the meat industry is one – both exports and imports when viewed from the entire supply chain – producers and end users.
From January through September, the U.S. exported 2.25 billion pounds of beef and while this figure is down 3 percent from a year earlier, the value of those exports including fresh, frozen, and chilled beef together with variety meats totaled $7.8 billion, a five percent increase over the prior year. Another piece to the export picture is also the price of U.S. beef and the value of the U.S. dollar. We exported a record 3.5 billion pounds of U.S. beef during 2022. However, in comparing those record 2022 exports with this year, the Choice Beef Cutout Value as an indicator of wholesale beef prices, was 15 percent higher for first 9 months of 2024 than during 2022 while the value of the dollar this year was two percent higher than during 2022. Simply put, our trading partners paid a significantly higher price for U.S. beef this year than during 2022.
China’s purchases of U.S. beef this year represented 16 percent of our beef exports during the first nine months and were down 11 percent from a year ago. China became a significant buyer of U.S. beef during 2021, with their purchases up 353% from a year earlier and these were followed by a 16 percent increase in 2022. Sharply higher U.S. prices coupled with a weak Chinese economy, have resulted in China sharply reducing imports of U.S. beef.
I am projecting the U.S. to export 2.95 billion pounds of beef this year, down 3 percent from a year ago and about equal to 2020. This export volume represents 11 percent of our U.S. beef production, down from 12.5 percent in 2022, the year of record beef exports. Exports are expected to be down eight percent during 2025 and the lowest since 2016. Our beef imports are expected to post a 21 percent increase this year followed by one percent increase during 2025. Again, high U.S. beef prices coupled with a strong dollar have an impact.
Trade is a complex issue and while there is a need to anticipate the impact of trade policy, it can often be difficult, particularly with early-on statements. I would suggest there is more to the new Trump administration’s goal than currently meets the eye with his statement of putting 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada and we have already seen some of the impact.
