Dry conditions: Ranchers focus on looking forward, experts say drought may be easing up
Ranchers in eastern Montana and Wyoming, far western South Dakota and western Nebraska are struggling to deal with drought conditions as they do all they can to manage their cattle herds.
One meteorologist believes adverse conditions will improve which is certainly welcome news.
Don Day, Jr., of DayWeather in Cheyenne, WY, believes the worst of the current drought cycle is on the way out. In the last couple of weeks, some of the dry areas have received some moisture.
“I’m hearing that those hard hit areas such as Campbell, Crook and Weston counties in Wyoming and into western parts of South Dakota near the Black Hills got ¾ to 1 ¼ inches of water in the recent storm. The area south of Gillette got 13 inches of snow. So, this past storm was great for targeting those areas that really needed it. I think what we are seeing is the beginning of a weather pattern shift. That should take us into the winter and into the spring. I am confident that drought conditions won’t get worse and I’m pretty confident they will gradually get better. It won’t happen overnight.”
Don is cautiously optimistic that the moisture deficit will be reduced in the next 12 months.
“We have to put things in perspective,” he said, adding that 2023 was a good year. “One bad year can erase big gains. We are kind of going through whiplash. The pendulum swung the other way in 2024.”
He said, “With 30 plus years of experience in observing weather patterns, I think we are tied to what happens out in the Pacific Ocean. These swings we are going through have a lot to do with going back and forth between a warmer and a colder Pacific. In 2023 there was an El Nino which broke a dry cycle which occurred from 2020 to 2022 in the western high plains. The La Nina, caused by cold water in the Pacific, created very dry conditions with below average precipitation.
In his view, “We see the current La Nina fading away by February and going into a warmer cycle by spring. We are going through extremes, driven by what happens in the Pacific. What I anticipate is this warmer cycle that returns in 2025 will have legs on it that might take it into 2026 instead of going back to La Nina again.”
Will take years to recover
A little bit of rain can lift spirits but it will take much more than that to rejuvenate the pastures around Camp Crook, South Dakota. One rancher believes it may take four years of good rains for the rolling prairie to get back to normal.
“Last year was pretty dry,” Darwin Latham said. Darwin, his wife, Kay, and their sons are the fifth generation of Lathams to ranch in the Camp Crook area. They raise commercial black Angus/Hereford-cross cattle and sell register bulls on their ranch. “This year was super dry. We had no runoff due to lack of snow so all our stock dams dried up. There was even a spring in one of the dugouts and that is completely dry. We have not been this dry since the 1930s.”
Darwin said the spring started out with a lot of grasshoppers. An aerial spray program took care of most of them. But they’ve had no moisture to restore the grasses.
As this is the second year of arid conditions, they have gone through any extra grass they had. A tough decision has been made to ship out about 500 head of cows for the winter.
Good calf prices offset having to purchase extra feed. “We figured we have only about half of the hay we need for the winter,” Darwin said. “Rather than truck in hay, it’s just as cost effective to haul out part of our herd. If the cows stayed here, they’d still go out to graze which would deplete the pastures further. Then there wouldn’t be any grass to catch snow when it does come.”
In a few weeks, the trucks with cows will head east. “We have connections with a fellow near Webster,” Darwin said. “He’s helped to develop our heifer calves in the past. We know him well and know he’ll take good care of our stock. It’s hard to find someone who will take care of the animals as you would. There is always a worry but this is someone we know and trust.”
“It really is a balancing act,” Darwin said. “We culled our old cows pretty hard. We still have to make a living and make our payments. If we got rid of our cows now, it’s hard to know what it will cost to replace them.”
“The calves are a little lighter than normal. We usually don’t ship our calves until December but with short groceries in the pastures, the calves won’t gain anything by being out there,” he said. The cows are in surprisingly good shape, he added.
The ground is resilient and can bounce back. “At least that’s what I’ve seen on native grasses. It takes time for the grass to recover and develop a good root system. Even if it turns out to be a really wet year, it will take more than one year.”
In the last three years, he and his crew put in 30 water tanks and extended pipelines. Six new wells have been drilled running off solar panels. “We had the grass before and not the water. Out here, if you don’t have water, you don’t have anything. You can get by some years with short grass but you always need water.”
Their pastures, with leased land and permitted areas cover over 20,000 acres. “Some days all you do is make sure everything works. We try to check water tanks and water lines three times a week. It takes a lot of time but it’s what we have to do.”
Darwin’s wife Kay helps out on the ranch and babysits her grandchildren. Their youngest son Jason works with him full time and his wife Kaeloni works as a bookkeeper. Their older son John works at Pioneer Bank in Buffalo. They also have a hired man.
In addition, “We are very fortunate to have a lot of good neighbors who help when needed. That’s how we operate. We help them preg-check and they’ll do the same for us. That’s how we get things done.”
Dust was terrible all summer. Looking out across the pasture, it looked like a fire but it was cows trailing through the powder dry dirt to get to water. Fortunately, they didn’t have any fires on their land this summer. All of the pickups have sprayers and the family responds to local fires to help when needed. Darwin and his wife are EMTs.
Darwin shared his observation about ranches getting bigger. “In the livestock business, our margin is small per head. We have to do more with less. Or we have to run more head to continue to survive. My grandfather could run his whole operation for a year on his steer calf check. The heifer calf check was profit. That was in the 1960s and 1970s. He figured he made 25 percent actual profit. Those days are long gone. That’s why so many smaller operations go out of business and why the larger ones get larger. Small operations will work only if the people work in town and farm or ranch on the weekend.”
“This is absolutely the best lifestyle,” Darwin said. “Our family history is woven into the fabric of the community. We are the fifth generation here and our son’s kids will be the sixth. We keep going, even when times are tough. There is always something to overcome, whether it’s sickness or an unexpected financial setback. Our fore bearers taught us to have a frugal ranch heritage and we hope to continue that.”
It’s awful easy to feel hopeless during a drought, he said. “But eventually it will rain. Community support means a lot to all of us. When times are tough, we deal with it and do what we need to do.”
Feeding cows earlier than normal
As a few sprinkles fell, Jessica (Painter) Holmes was hoping the clouds would open up and they’d get the six-tenths of an inch of rain forecast for their area on Oct. 29. If so, that would bring their yearly rain total for their ranch in Harding County in South Dakota up to three inches.
“We moved cattle today, hoping we’d get drenched,” Jessica said, in late October. “I don’t know how much rain it will take to bring our pastures back. I hate to say it but we need a really bad winter, with feet and feet of snow.”
In addition to being in an extreme drought area, part of the pasture they lease was burned in a wildfire this summer.
Relentless winds and dry conditions parched pastures on the Painter Ranch near Buffalo, South Dakota. “My dad, Joe Painter, is really big on making sure we don’t overgraze. We moved cows a lot this summer, trying to minimize the damage. We jumped for joy when we got .18 inch of rain one day and it didn’t blow. It was so good to get that to settle the dust. We worry about calves getting dust pneumonia. We treated a few but have been very lucky.”
Jessica said they have been feeding cows for a month: distillers, beet pulp, corn and hay.
“We sold our bigger steer yearlings early as we knew we wouldn’t have enough grass. We have leased pasture for the rest. We also did a hard cull on our cows after we ultrasounded. We’ve had some amazing cows live to be 15-years-old but this year anything that was semi-old, had to go.”
She explained, “We are trying everything we can to keep the good cows here. We’ve spent time, effort and thought into AI’ing to build our perfect herd. We’ve got them where we want; it’s hard to let some go. Thank goodness cattle prices are as high as they are. We did have insurance on everything and got help from some government programs. We’re extremely grateful. It’s a good thing this is not our first year of ranching.”
Jessica and her husband Casey have been on the family ranch since 2012. Making sure the cattle have water is a huge part of their life. “My dad has done an exceptional job of getting pipeline and water tanks placed so we can get water to pastures. The Little Missouri River is on the far west side of our operation but it doesn’t help much. We have game cameras on all the water tanks and my dad flies out to check. Cattle can’t go a day without water. Dad is great at thinking ahead and making things work.”
“We are always looking forward and strategizing to make things work,” Jessica said. “It will all work out. We wouldn’t trade this lifestyle for anything. It’s the best place in the world to raise kids as they learn about morals and develop a work ethic. It will all work out.”
Custer County, SD
Bob Baker, who ranches just east of Buffalo Gap, S.D., said, “This drought is about as serious as I’ve ever seen.” Our pastures and cattle held together until about six weeks ago. Now grass is grazed down to the point where it’s grim.”
The good news this week is they got a little rain, not much, but some.
They shipped their calves out this week. “We are thinning aged cattle from our herd,” he said. “I’m scaling down and my kids are scaling up.”
Bob said they’ve started feeding their cattle hay, which is very early for them. Neighbors who don’t have hay are culling hard or selling bred heifers.
“It’s really unfortunate as it takes so long to put a good herd together.”
“We have four pivots so we put up plenty of hay,” he said. He has a mostly Angus commercial cow-calf herd and has been involved in timber and ranching for 50 years. The family has four hay fields with pivot irrigation. “We are fortunate that we have irrigation and last year we had decent moisture. We might be the exception rather than the rule in this area.”
Montana
In an area of southeastern Montana suffering from drought, Ann Mackaben said, “We just don’t get a lot of rain. We didn’t take a major hit this year; what we went through is minor. Compared to others, we feel extremely fortunate.”
Living on the east side of the Powder River with an address of Broadus, MT, the Mackabens have run a commercial cow-calf operation for 20 years. In the arid mountainous country, Ann and her husband Ronny manage for drought. Cow nutrition is vital. They understock pastures as they believe they can put more pounds on calves. And you never know what the good Lord may send your way, she said.
“My dad always said take 50 percent of the grass and leave 50 percent. We aim to follow that as we practice rotational grazing. Sometimes we will leave a pasture idle for drought management.”
Ann said they believe well water helps them put pounds on calves. It’s also quite a problem when a well goes down. The soil in the area is very sandy so dams don’t hold surface water.
While they had plans in place, conditions dictated that more needed to be done to handle this year’s drought.
Their calves shipped out this week. With only 50 percent of their hay production, they decided the heifers they would normally keep as replacements were sent to a feedlot. And they did cull their older cows to take stress off the ranch. With a lot of vertical acres, Ann figures their stocking rate is 45 to 60 acres per cow. “When we preg checked the cows, we shortened the calving season. Instead of calving for 60 days, we shortened it to 45 days.”
This year, a number of wildfires started near their operation, putting them and their neighbors on alert most of the summer. There are original seams of coal on the ranch. During a drought, the coal naturally ignites within minutes when a wildfire goes over it. Most of the time, it is in places that are hard to reach because of the rough terrain.
About 10 days ago, the area got some rain. Not enough to quench the drought but enough to let the Mackabens sleep at night.
Ann said, “It will take snow and spring showers to bring the blackened ground to life. We are thankful we still do have areas to graze. We pray for some of our neighbors who don’t.”
Calves are lighter
At Belle Fourche (South Dakota) Livestock, Baxter Anders said prices for cattle have been unbelievable. “It’s been really fun, pretty exciting. Dollars per head have been good.”
Located on the extreme western side of the state, Belle Fourche Livestock often sees a significant number of Montana and Wyoming cattle. With the drought in the past few years, the herds in general are smaller, said Anders. Calves coming in this fall are 15 to 25 pounds lighter. Because of conditions, the calves from some places have been sold earlier than normal which ends up with lighter than normal weights. Still the dollars per head have been really good so it hasn’t had an overall effect, he said.
Business in Buffalo, SD
Sam Olson who runs Buffalo Ranch Supply in Buffalo, South Dakota, said it’s been tough for a lot of area ranchers. A lot of people realized early on that conditions weren’t going to improve. They started moving hay into this country all summer. Grass is dry and everything is dusty.
Ranchers drive very slowly down gravel roads to create the least amount of dust. Those who are working cattle wet down the corrals to keep their animals healthy.
“At the Ranch Supply, we’ve tested a lot of hay. Ranchers are looking at ways to improve their rations to make their lower grade of hay stretch further when feeding. Many have sent their animals off to leased pastures for the winter and the cows will come back to calve in the spring.”
As he hears what ranchers face, he said, “I think all ranchers and those involved in ag are the most resilient people in the world. They take a lot of blows, but keep moving forward, dealing with a lot, trying to keep a good attitude. It has to be really hard to deal with.”
Sam believes fire danger will continue until the area gets blanketed with snow. There is no ground moisture. He’s hopeful they will catch some shots of rain. There is a definite need for runoff to fill the dams.
Resilient is the best way to describe the people out here, Sam said, “Most are making plans and adapting to situations, finding a way through. They are a tough group, that’s for sure.”
