ECBOT watches Plains, Midwest
March 30, 2009
OMAHA (DTN) – A weather outlook featuring continued wet cool weather in the Midwest looms as a key factor for trade attention ahead of the Sunday E-CBOT session. This outlook means that spring field work prospects remain very slow over the region. A bullish market weather factor for corn is likely with this scenario, while the market factor for soybeans is neutral to bearish, due to prospects for reduced corn acreage and increased soybean acreage if conditions force significant delays through the spring in row-crop areas. Weather is only one of many factors which influence the market in a given day.
“Wet weather and episodes of cool temperatures will slow spring fieldwork and any early corn planting,” DTN Ag Meteorologist Mike Palmerino said Sunday.
In the western Midwest (west of the Mississippi River), southeastern Iowa and northern Missouri took in rain and snow of up to three-quarters of an inch during the past 48 hours. Temperatures across the region were below to much below normal.
Palmerino’s outlook calls for a mix of rain and snow to develop Monday through Tuesday, with up to one inch of precipitation. After a few days of drier weather late in the week, rain and snow is indicated during the weekend of April 4-5, with possibly significant amounts. Temperatures are expected to remain mostly below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, and near to above normal Saturday.
In the eastern Midwest (east of the Mississippi), Palmerino noted that the up to one and one-half inch of precipitation, occurring as a rain and snow mix, developed during Friday and Saturday. “The heaviest activity favored western areas, where up to five inches of snow was reported on the ground Sunday morning in central Illinois” he said.
For this sector of the Midwest, Palmerino’s outlook calls for rain of up to three-quarters of an inch Tuesday, with another half-inch inch precipitation event Thursday. The week will end on a drier note. Temperatures stay below normal through Friday, with a warmer trend by the April 4-5 weekend.
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The entire Midwest is expected to have near to above normal precipitation in the ten-day outlook through Wednesday April 8.
In the Southern Plains wheat areas, the main weather event has already occurred in the form of beneficial snow for Kansas and Oklahoma wheat areas. Snowfall ranged up to a foot in the region, with liquid equivalent precipitation of up to an inch and a half.
“Very beneficial precipitation on Friday for developing winter wheat in southern Kansas and northern and central Oklahoma,” said Palmerino. “Also, no damaging cold was observed.”
The only area to be left out of the meaningful moisture was Texas. Palmerino described the precipitation in the Texas Panhandle as “disappointing.”
The market weather factor for wheat is likely to be neutral to bearish because of the favorable weekend precipitation.
Palmerino also noted that spring wheat areas of the northern Plains had dry weather during the weekend, which assisted in flood control efforts. He is concerned about prospects for renewed springtime snow in the region this week.
“Cold weather and snowfall will act to prevent further rising of the Red River at this time,” he said. “However, when warmer weather returns during April, further flooding is possible as snow that will occur during the next seven days melts. Some spring wheat acreage in the flooded areas may not get planted.”
DTN SnowPath forecast maps indicate that more than a foot of new snow is in store for the Red River Valley in North Dakota and Minnesota in the time period ending Wednesday, April 1.
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