U. of Missouri releases final price estimates before program enrollment deadline | TSLN.com

U. of Missouri releases final price estimates before program enrollment deadline

Jessica Johnson

The University of Missouri Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) released its final long-term price projections before the March 31 Farm Bill program enrollment deadline.

The projections give corn and wheat producers an idea of whether their crops are likely to qualify for payments over the next five crop years under the Farm Bill Commodity programs.

As of March 16, 2015 FAPRI estimates that corn prices will be $3.69 per bushel for the 2014-15 crop, $3.93 per bushel for the 2015-16 crop, $3.95 per bushel for the 2016-17 crop, $3.99 per bushel for the 2017-18 crop, and $4.11 per bushel for the 2018-19 crop.

Given these estimates, FAPRI expects one Price Loss Coverage (PLC) payment for corn under the 2014 Farm Bill. Producers with corn base acres enrolled in PLC would only obtain a 1-cent-per-bushel payment for qualifying base acres in 2014, and no additional payments for the remainder of the program.

County Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC-CO) program for corn in the Panhandle is not affected by the new estimates. Most counties in the Panhandle are still expected to obtain an ARC-CO corn payment 2014-15, 2015-16 and 2016-17 crop.

Dryland corn producers, in mainly dryland counties, with split irrigated and non-irrigated ARC-CO payment calculations, such as Banner, Dawes and Deuel counties, are not expected to receive 2014-15 ARC-CO payments.

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For wheat, FAPRI estimates prices will be $6.08 per bushel for the 2014-15 crop, $5.20 per bushel for the 2015-16 crop, $5.26 per bushel for the 2016-17 crop, $5.43 per bushel for the 2017-18 crop, and $5.68 per bushel for the 2018-19 crop.

According to FAPRI estimates, PLC still remains attractive for wheat producers, with payments expected for four of the five years of the program. ARC-CO for wheat still remains unfavorable, especially for payments for the 2014-15 crop.

The deadline to update yield, reallocate base acres, and enroll in a commodity program is March 31, 2015. If you have questions about the Farm Bill, please contact Jessica Johnson 308-632-1247.

–University of Nebraska Extension